This paper compares Value Line and I/B/E/S analyst earnings forecasts in terms of accuracy, rationality, and as proxies for market expectations. Using more recent data and forming consensus forecasts from the I/B/E/S detail files, we reach different conclusions than Philbrick and Ricks [1991],...

Presentation Slides for "Overconfidence, Arbitrage, and Equilibrium Asset Pricing" This paper offers a model in which asset prices reflect both covariance risk and misperceptions of firmsapos prospects, and in which arbitrageurs trade against mispricing. In equilibrium, expected returns are...

The basic paradigm of asset pricing is in vibrant flux. The purely rational approach is being subsumed by a broader approach based upon the psychology of investors. In this approach, security expected returns are determined by both risk and misvaluation. This survey sketches a framework for...

This paper revisits two valuation models based on accounting figures: the Residual Income Valuation (RIV) and Abnormal Earnings Growth (AEG). Our research design has two approaches: i) we demonstrate theoretical integration of both models; and ii) we show in a practical manner that models...

This paper documents the consequences of publicly announcing “strategic alternatives,” whereby the company reveals its decision to explore a potential sale or merger. The inherent uncertainty in ex-post transactional outcomes (i.e., whether the firm is sold, liquidated, or remains...

This study examines the benefits and costs to a company of publicly announcing that it is seeking a potential sale or merger. I find that the announcement leads to increased market attention and a more robust M&A sales process—the benefits of improved transparency. However, I also find...

The concept of common knowledge concerning higher orders of knowledge has seen exciting new developments in the fields of philosophy, game theory, statistics, economics and cognitive science in the recent decades. Even though information lies at the heart of accounting and capital markets...

Numerous archival papers indicate that investors can generate profit by following disciplined trading strategies that exploit the market's incomplete adjustment for various accounting data. Even assuming efficient markets in which securities are not mispriced, evidence suggests that both...

While the influence of earnings performance on disclosure is a fundamental issue in the disclosure literature, our understanding of this influence is limited. In this paper, I examine a comprehensive set of disclosures from a sample of firms experiencing an extended period of seasonally adjusted...

The concept of common knowledge concerning higher orders of knowledge has seen exciting new developments in the fields of philosophy, game theory, statistics, economics and cognitive science in the recent decades. Even though information lies at the heart of accounting and capital markets...