In this article, we compare several candidate time-series models for the time-series of quarterly accounting earnings per share. One Box-Jenkins model dominates in terms of forecast accuracy. This model is a Box-Jenkins (1,0,0) x (0,1,1) model

Estimates of future quarterly earnings are of prime importance to capital market participants for formulating their investment decisions. Superior ability to forecast future earnings may enable investors to reap extraordinary returns by trading in the affected securities. The extant forecast...

If both producers and consumers demand forecasts based solely on their forecasting ability, then the equilibrium employment of analysts, a higher cost factor than time series models, implies that analysts must produce better forecasts than time series models. Past studies of comparative earnings...

The process by which analysts revise quarterly earnings forecasts is analyzed and compared to the way in which several time-series models of quarterly earnings revise forecasts. A significant portion of the analyst's forecast revision is explained by the most recent one-quarter-ahead forecast...

This paper surveys some of the prevalent theories of stock market regulation (market failure and public choice.) The validity of generalizing U.S. regulatory experience to the markets of other nations depends on which, if any, of these popular theories holds. No convincing evidence exists to...

Large outside shareholders, outside boards, and management entrenchment influence the choice of inside or outside CEOs. In a sample of 385 CEO changes from 1979 to 1986, the probability of selecting an outside CEO rises with the level of stock ownership of large outside shareholders and the...

This article describes in some detail the properties of free market money and banking so as to contrast state-controlled central bank money and banking. It examines seven steps that government takes to replace the free market with central banking as it creates a banking system cartel. A number...

Odd-lot data over 1904-1972 provide a unique way to examine market efficiency because the data were private before 1936 and public thereafter. They also have intuitive appeal because they seem to pit the untutored small investor against the professional. Several commentators on the odd-lot data...

This paper shows how to explain diversification using gain and loss. The gain-loss approach focuses on the cancellation of returns that occurs as stocks enter a portfolio. Simple algebra and arithmetic explain exactly how diversification acts to raise a portfolio's gain-loss ratio. The method...

We show the existence of a viable gain-loss portfolio theory, relevant for investors seeking high expected gain compared to expected loss. Diversification, in gain-loss theory, raises a portfolio's gain-loss ratio even when all component assets have identical gain-loss ratios, as long as some of...