This paper uses a reduced form credit risk model to estimate default probabilities implicit in equity prices. For a cross-section of firms, a time-series regression of monthly equity returns is estimated. We show that it is feasible to infer the firm's probability of default implicit in equity...

We develop a dynamic simulation model for residential home prices in an economy where defaults on residential mortgages negatively affect housing prices and aggregate income. This simulation model enables us to study the impact of subprime defaults on prime borrowers and the impact of various...

This paper provides an alternative approach to Duffie and Lando (2001) for obtaining a reduced form credit risk model from a structural model. Duffie and Lando obtain a reduced form model by constructing an economy where the market sees the manager's information set plus noise. The noise makes...

The purpose of this paper is to review the literature on inflation-adjusted bonds, swaps, and derivatives. The methodology for valuation and risk management of these securities is an application of the foreign currency extension of a standard HJM term structure model. The two “currencies” in...

Whereas much of previous literature focuses upon the impact on yields from the Federal Reserve's large-scale asset purchases (LSAPs), we study the changes to expected returns. Through a simple general equilibrium model, we motivate how LSAPs may impact equilibrium bond and equity expected...

This paper uses an HJM model to price TIPS and related derivative securities. First, using the market prices of TIPS and ordinary U.S. Treasury securities, both the real and nominal zero-coupon bond price curves are obtained using standard coupon-bond price stripping procedures. Next, a...

Many monetary studies on the portfolio balance effect omit its impact to equity returns. Motivated through a simple general equilibrium model, we study how changes in the bond supply affect the overall equity market. Our model predicts that exogenous increases (decreases) in the bond supply...

The purpose of this paper is to review the literature on inflation-adjusted bonds, swaps, and derivatives. The methodology for valuation and risk management of these securities is an application of the foreign currency extension of a standard HJM term structure model. The two “currencies” in...

Using the Algo FIRST operational risk database, this paper computes the cost of operational risk loss insurance for a sample of banks over a 1-year horizon. The estimated cost of 1-year operational risk loss insurance for an average bank is 1.24% as a percentage of firm value on December 31,...

This paper provides a model for housing prices based on a seller solving the optimal time-on-the market problem. Given the seller's optimal time-on-the market, analytical expressions are provided for both the expected time-on-the-market and the sales price. These expressions facilitate the...