Many previous studies document a positive relation between research and development (Ramp;D) and equity value. Though Ramp;D can increase equity value by increasing firm value, it can also increase equity value at the expense of bondholder wealth through an increase in firm risk because equity...

Many previous studies document a positive relation between research and development (Ramp;D) and equity value. Though Ramp;D can increase equity value by increasing firm value, it can also increase equity value at the expense of bondholder wealth through an increase in firm risk because equity...

Using account level credit-card data from six major commercial banks from January 2009 to December 2013, we apply machine-learning techniques to combined consumer-tradeline, credit-bureau, and macroeconomic variables to predict delinquency. In addition to providing accurate measures of loss...

Using account level credit-card data from six major commercial banks from January 2009 to December 2013, we apply machine-learning techniques to combined consumer-tradeline, credit-bureau, and macroeconomic variables to predict delinquency. In addition to providing accurate measures of loss...

In this paper, we study predictability of exchange rates and explore determinants of its dynamics over time. We model the admissible amount of predictability in two ways, each corresponding in a stylized manner to a broad class of rational currency pricing models, namely those under which the...

Much attention is paid to portfolio variance, but skewness is also important for both portfolio design and asset pricing. We revisit the empirical research on systematic skewness that we initiated 25 years ago. In an out-of-sample test, we find that the risk premium associated with skewness is...

If asset returns have systematic skewness, expected returns should include rewards for accepting this risk. We formalize this intuition with an asset pricing model which incorporates conditional skewness. Our results show that conditional skewness helps explain the cross-sectional variation of...

We present a framework for modeling and estimating dynamics of variance and skewness from time-series data using a maximum likelihood approach assuming that the errors from the mean have a non-central conditional t distribution. We parameterize conditional variance and conditional skewness in an...

Single factor asset pricing models face two major hurdles: the problematic time-series properties of the ex ante market risk premium and the inability of the risk measure to account for a substantial degree of the cross-sectional variation of expected excess returns. We provide an explanation...

The positive stock price reaction to stock buyback announcements reported in many previous studies is commonly interpreted as a signal that the firm's future profitability will rise, or that the firm is decreasing its agency costs by dispersing free cash flow, or that the firm is increasing its...