In diesem Aufsatz wird der Modellansatz von Garratt, Lee, Pesaran und Smith (2003) zur Schätzung eines strukturellen kointegrierten Fehlerkorrekturmodells verwendet, das wesentliche makroökonomische Variable für die Schweiz unter Berücksichtigung gegenwärtiger und verzögerter Werte...

We investigate the effect of forecast uncertainty in a cointegrating vector error correction model for Switzerland. Forecast uncertainty is evaluated in three different dimensions. First, we investigate the effect on forecasting performance of averaging over forecasts from different models....

This paper applies the modelling strategy of Garratt, Lee, Pesaran and Shin (2003) to the estimation of a structural cointegrated VAR model that relates the core macroeconomic variables of the Swiss economy to current and lagged values of a number of key foreign variables. We identify and test a...

This paper presents a new approach to estimation and inference in panel data models with unobserved common factors possibly correlated with exogenously given individual-specific regressors and/or the observed common effects. The basic idea behind the proposed estimation procedure is to filter...

This paper proposes a pair-wise approach to testing for output convergence that considers all N(N-1)/2 possible pairs of log per capita output gaps across N economies. A general probabilistic definition of output convergence is also proposed, which suggests that all such output gap pairs must be...