We show theoretically that the weak transmission of beliefs to actions induces a strong bias in basic asset pricing tests. In particular, expected returns can appear to decline in risk when investors weakly transmit their payoff expectations into willingness to pay. We experimentally test this...

We document that 20% of Compustat firms have above-median investment rates despite having below-median marginal product of capital (MPK), seemingly "misallocating" productive resources. These firms are typically younger and significantly more likely to experience a substantial upward jump in...

We show theoretically that the weak transmission of beliefs to actions induces a strong bias in basic asset pricing tests. In particular, expected returns can appear to decline in risk when investors weakly transmit their payoff expectations into willingness to pay. We experimentally test this...

What is the driving force behind the cyclical behavior of unemployment and vacancies? What is the relation between job-creation incentives of firms and stock market valuations? We answer these questions in a model with time-varying risk, modeled as a small and variable probability of an economic...

We show that investors’ learning can drastically alter the dynamics of the variance risk premium: it no longer increases as economic conditions deteriorate but exhibits a highly nonlinear pattern, occasionally even turning negative. We demonstrate the intuition using a simple two-state...

What is the driving force behind the cyclical behavior of unemployment and vacancies? What is the relation between job-creation incentives of firms and stock market valuations? We answer these questions in a model with time-varying risk, modeled as a small and variable probability of an economic...

We develop a model that endogenously generates slowly unfolding disasters not only in the macroeconomy, but also in financial markets. In our model, investors cannot exactly distinguish whether the economy is experiencing a mild/temporary downturn or is on the verge of a severe/prolonged...

We study the impact of the 1933 abrogation of gold clauses on the slow recovery of corporate investment following the Great Depression. Legal challenges to the constitutionality of abrogating gold clauses exposed many firms to the possibility of a 69% increase in required payments to...