Although firms' expectations on future price dynamics are key for monetary policy, we still lack information on the expected effect of the transition to a net-zero economy on future prices. This paper aims to fill this gap in the literature using survey data collected in the first quarter of...

Using Italian data from Twitter, we employ textual data and machine learning techniques to build new real-time measures of consumers' inflation expectations. First, we select some relevant keywords to identify tweets related to prices and expectations thereof. Second, we build a set of daily...

The paper investigates the role of expectations in the household credit cycle. First, I provide empirical evidence that survey data on expectations have strong predictive power for the dynamics of household debt. Optimism on future income predicts an increase in credit, in line with the...

Climate change poses severe systemic risks to the financial sector through multiple transmission channels. In this paper, we estimate the potential impact of different carbon taxes (€50, €100, €200 and €800 per ton of CO2) on the Italian banks’ default rates at the sector level in the...