The hot hand fallacy has long been considered a massive and widespread cognitive illusion with important economic consequences. While the canonical domain of the fallacy is basketball, which continues to provide its strongest and most readily generalizable supporting evidence, the fallacy has...

We show how classic conditional probability puzzles, such as the Monty Hall problem, are intimately related to the hot hand selection bias Miller and Sanjurjo (2015). We explain the connection by way of the principle of restricted choice, an intuitive inferential rule from the card game bridge,...

The NBA Three-Point Contest has been considered an ideal setting to study the hot hand, as it showcases the elite professional shooters that hot hand beliefs are typically directed towards, but in an environment that eliminates many of the confounds present in game action. We collect 29 years of...

Belief in the hot hand -- positive momentum in performance -- has often been quickly dismissed as fallacious since the canonical, and highly influential, hot hand fallacy paper was written over 30 years ago. For better or worse, subsequent research has often focused on hot hand performance...

We prove that a subtle but substantial bias exists in a standard measure of the conditional dependence of present outcomes on streaks of past outcomes in sequential data. The magnitude of this novel form of selection bias generally decreases as the sequence gets longer, but increases in streak...

This is a user-friendly aid to understanding the Hot Hand selection bias discovered in Miller and Sanjurjo (2015); "Surprised by the Gambler's and Hot Hand Fallacies? A Truth in the Law of Small Numbers." It attempts to address the most frequently asked questions, and draw out the connections to...

I introduce a simple model of memory load in multiple attribute search and prove which types of search behavior require the least amount of memory load. The model is easily implementable and tracks choice error rates in the lab. The results on minimum memory load search can be used to explain a...