We show theoretically and empirically that flows into index funds raise the prices of large stocks in the index disproportionately more than the prices of small stocks. Conversely, flows predict a high future return of the small-minus-large index portfolio. This finding runs counter to the CAPM,...

Corporate bond mutual funds tend to hold illiquid assets but provide liquid claims to their investors. How do they manage liquidity to meet investor redemptions? We show that, during tranquil market conditions, these funds tend to reduce liquid asset holdings such as cash and government bonds to...

We propose a new measure of time-varying tail risk that is directly estimable from the cross section of returns. We exploit firm-level price crashes every month to identify common fluctuations in tail risk across stocks. Our tail measure is significantly correlated with tail risk measures...

Interest rates dived into uncharted territories for an extended period after the financial crisis. What is the impact on investor behavior and asset prices? We find that when interest rates fall, flows into income-oriented equity funds increase, with higher dividend-yielding funds attracting...

We propose a measure of dispersion in fund managers’beliefs about future stock returns based on their active holdings, i.e., deviations from benchmarks. We fi nd that both the level of and the change in dispersion positively predict subsequent stock returns on a risk-adjusted basis. This effect...

The consensus wisdom of active mutual fund managers, as reflected in their average over- and underweighting decisions, contains valuable information about future stock returns. Analyzing a comprehensive sample of active U.S. equity funds 1984-2008, we find that stocks heavily overweighted by...

We propose a new measure, active fundamental performance (AFP), to identify skilled mutual fund managers. AFP evaluates fund investment skills conditioned on the release of firms' fundamental information. For each fund, we examine the covariance between deviations of its portfolio weights from a...