In this paper, we provide a novel way to estimate the out-of-sample predictive ability of a trading rule. Usually, this ability is estimated using a sample-splitting scheme, true out-of-sample data being rarely available. We argue that this method makes poor use of the available data and creates...

Response functions that link regression predictors to properties of the response distribution are fundamental components in many statistical models. However, the choice of these functions is typically based on the domain of the modeled quantities and is usually not further scrutinized. For...

For numerous applications it is of interest to provide full probabilistic forecasts, which are able to assign probabilities to each predicted outcome. Therefore, attention is shifting constantly from conditional mean models to probabilistic distributional models capturing location, scale, shape...

We study the links between financial uncertainty, economic activity, and both conventional and unconventional monetary policies. To disentangle the effects of conventional policies from unconventional ones, we introduce a new identification method that exploits non-Gaussian characteristics of...

We introduce a method to estimate simultaneously the tail and the threshold parameters of an extreme value regression model. This standard model finds its use in finance to assess the effect of market variables on extreme loss distributions of investment vehicles such as hedge funds. However, a...

For numerous applications it is of interest to provide full probabilistic forecasts, which are able to assign probabilities to each predicted outcome. Therefore, attention is shifting constantly from conditional mean models to probabilistic distributional models capturing location, scale, shape...

We study the link between the volatility of exchange rates and interest rate differentials (IRD), motivated by the importance of currency carry trade activities in exchange rate dynamics. We examine this link by means of an extended stochastic volatility model, for which we detail an efficient...

We propose a dynamic measure of extremal connectedness across investment styles of hedge funds. Using multivariate extreme value regression techniques, we estimate this measure conditional on factors reflecting the economic uncertainty and the state of the financial markets, and derive several...