In this article, we link the realized accuracy of predictive panels to changes in distributions that occur between the training (in-sample) phase and the testing (out-of-sample) phase. We obtain polynomial upper bounds for the loss of accuracy between training and testing. We model covariate...

We extend the model of Anufriev and Bottazzi (2010) to the case with many assets. We show that under the procedural equilibrium, all assets with nonzero aggregate demand must have the same price returns. Heterogeneity in price returns appears when some assets face zero demand. In this case, the...

The aim of this paper is to study the performance of carbon-based portfolios when all emissions scopes are accounted for. We formalize low-carbon portfolio strategies by integrating a carbon intensity penalty to a constrained mean-variance optimization framework. To do so, we resort to direct...

In this paper, we document the importance of memory in machine learning (ML)-based models relying on firm characteristics for asset pricing. We find that predictive algorithms perform best when they are trained on long samples, with long-term returns as dependent variables. In addition, we...

We introduce a multi-factor stochastic volatility model based on the CIR/Heston stochastic volatility process. In order to capture the Samuelson effect displayed by commodity futures contracts, we add expiry-dependent exponential damping factors to their volatility coefficients. The pricing of...

This paper considers the problem of measuring the exposure to dependence risk carried by a portfolio with an arbitrary number of two-asset derivative contracts. We develop a worst-case risk measure computed over a set of dependence scenarios within a divergence restricted region. The set of...

In this paper we consider the problem of pricing and hedging European derivatives written on two underlying assets, when individual marginal distributions are known. Our aim is twofold. First, we conduct a parallel analysis between implied volatility and implied correlation for spread options in...

Our first aim in this paper is to introduce a futures-based model able of capturing the main features displayed by Crude Oil futures and options contracts, such as the Samuelson volatility effect and the volatility smile. We calculate the joint characteristic function of two futures contracts in...

This paper deals with the problem of modelling the volatility of futures prices in agricultural markets. We develop a multi-factor model in which the stochastic volatility dynamics incorporate a seasonal component. In addition, a maturity dependent damping term accounts for the Samuelson effect....

In this paper we study the existence of arbitrage opportunities in a multi-asset market when risk-neutral marginal distributions of asset prices are known. We first propose an intuitive characterization of the absence of arbitrage opportunities in terms of copula functions. We then address the...