This paper analyses the welfare effects of two policies directed at the security of energy supply: investments in strategic petroleum reserves and a cap on the production of gas from the largest Dutch gas field. Market failures can justify such policies, in particular failure of individual...

This paper merges two isolated bodies of literature: the Markov chain model with macro data (MacRae, 1977) and the ecological inference model (Robinson, 1950). Both are choice models. They have the same likelihood function and the same regression equation.Decades ago, this likelihood function...

This paper has two aims. First, it describes CPB's contribution on bilateral services trade data to version 7 of the GTAP database. Among others, it uses reliability indices to determine the quality of the data reported by exporting and importing countries. Second, this paper discusses briefly...

This memorandum presents some basic equalities and inequalities about rates of return in discrete time, without auto-correlation. The arithmetic and geometric means are discussed. Estimation of the expected payout and the median payout is discussed, including maximum likelihood estimation.

This CPB Discussion Paper merges two isolated bodies of literature: the Markov chain model with macro data (MacRae, 1977) and the ecological inference model (Robinson, 1950). Both are choice models. They have the same likelihood function and the same regression equation. Decades ago, this...

Mirror data are observations of bilateral variables such as trade from one country to another, reported by both countries. The efficient estimation of a bilateral variable from its mirror data, for example when compiling consistent international trade statistics, requires information about the...

This paper presents some suggestions for the specification of dynamic models. These suggestions are based on the supposed continuous-time nature of most economic processes. In particular, the partial adjustment model -or Koyck lag model- is discussed. The refinement of this model is derived...