The paper by Atkinson, Riani and Ceroli, henceforth ARC, is concerned with detection of outliers and unsuspected structures which is rather important in practice.  This is done through a Forward Search Algorithm.  The statistical analysis of such algorithms poses many challenging problems, and...

The Forward Search is an iterative algorithm concerned with detection of outliers and other unsuspected structures in data.  This approach has been suggested, analysed and applied for regression models in the monograph Atkinson and Riani (2000).  An asymptotic analysis of the Forward Search is...

An algorithm suggested by Hendry (1999) for estimation in a regression with more regressors than observations, is analyzed with the purpose of finding an estimator that is robust to outliers and structural breaks.  This estimator is an example of a one-step M-estimator based on Huber's skip...

The notions of instrument, intermediate target and final target are defined in the context of the cointegrated VAR. A target variable is said to be controllable if it can be made stationary around a desired target value by using the instrument. This can be expressed as a condition on the...

We interpret the linear relations from exact rational expectations models as restrictions on the parameters of the statistical model called the cointegrated vector autoregressive model for non-stationary variables. We then show how reduced rank regression, Anderson (1951), plays an important...

Trygve Haavelmo's Probability Approach aimed to implement economic theories, but he later recognized their incompleteness. Although he did not explicitly consider model selection, we apply it when theory-relevant variables, {xt}, are retained without selection while selecting other candidate...

When analysing macroeconomic data it is often of relevance to allow for structural breaks in the statistical analysis. In particular, cointegration analysis in the presence of structural breaks could be of interest. We propose a cointegration model with piecewise linear trend and known break...

The Forward Search Algorithm is a statistical algorithm for obtaining robust estimators of regression coefficients in the presence of outliers. The algorithm selects a succession of subsets of observations from which the parameters are estimated. The present note shows how the theory of...

An analysis of some identification problems in the cointegrated VAR is given. We give a new criteria for identification by linear restrictions on individual relations which is equivalent to the rank condition. We compare the asymptotic distribution of the estimators of alpha and beta when they...

This paper discusses a number of likelihood ratio tests on long-run relations and common trends in the I(2) model and provide new results on the test of overidentifying restrictions on beta xt and the asymptotic variance for the stochastic trends parameters, alpha 1: How to specify deterministic...