Monetary policy shocks affect interest rates at long horizons (10 years or more). Furthermore, the private sector's real GDP forecasts are revised upward in response to a monetary tightening. These facts challenge the prevailing theories in academic and policy circles. In this paper, I propose a...

Firms’ market power, measured by markups, has risen substantially and unequally across sectors. To evaluate the implications of these trends for monetary non-neutrality, we develop a quantitative menu cost model that covers multiple sectors with heterogeneous degrees of market competition. Two...

What drives macroeconomic tail risk? To answer this question, we borrow a definition of macroeconomic risk from Adrian et al. (2019) by studying (left-tail) percentiles of the forecast distribution of GDP growth. We use local projections (Jordà , 2005) to assess how this measure of risk moves...

What drives macroeconomic tail risk? To answer this question, we borrow a definition of macroeconomic risk from Adrian et al. (2019) by studying (left-tail) percentiles of the forecast distribution of GDP growth. We use local projections (Jordà , 2005) to assess how this measure of risk moves...

Real GDP and industrial production in the US feature substantial tail risk. While this fact is well documented, several questions remain unanswered. Is this asymmetry driven by a specific structural shock? No. We show that the 10th percentile of the predictive growth distributions responds about...

The introduction of digital price tags and online shopping may facilitate price adjustments and reduce the degree of nominal rigidity in the economy. Is this welfare-improving? We address this question in a multi-sector New Keynesian model with information frictions and dispersed beliefs....

Canonical macroeconomic and financial models require credit to be equal to its fundamental component, i.e., the net present value of the net flows to creditors. Per this conventional view, credit booms are expected to precede increased flows to creditors. However, data suggests otherwise. To...