This paper explores how US partisan conflict impacts the cash management decisions of US firms. Using a sign restrictions approach to identify structural shocks to partisan conflict, we find that an exogenous 10% rise in the Partisan Conflict Index above trend is associated with a 0.4 percentage...

Using U.S. data over the period 1960Q3 - 2019Q4 we estimate a structural factor-augmented vector autoregressive model and find that a one standard deviation shock to macroeconomic uncertainty generates declines in state-level employment growth that range from -0.02 to -0.12 percentage points at...

This paper distinguishes political uncertainty from policy uncertainty shocks and uncovers new empirical facts about how each impacts the aggregate cash holdings of US firms. Our baseline structural vector autoregression model shows that an exogenous one standard deviation shock to political and...

This paper explores how US partisan conflict impacts the cash management decisions of US firms. Using a sign restrictions approach to identify structural shocks to partisan conflict, we find that an exogenous 10% rise in the Partisan Conflict Index above trend is associated with a 0.4 percentage...

This paper highlights the international transmission of political uncertainty originated from a US partisan conflict shock, a newly identified shock that transmits a type of uncertainty beyond the economic policy uncertainty spillovers identified by Colombo (2013). Using the recently developed...

On average between 1981 and 2007, output per capita in Hong Kong grew at an annual rate of 3.2 percent. But economic performance over the period was far from even. Between 1987 and 1997, output per capita averaged 9.7 percent above its long run growth path. In 1997, the feast ended and the...

This paper provides robust evidence for the non-linear effects of mortgage spread shocks during recessions and expansions in the United States. Estimating a smooth-transition VAR model, we show that mortgage spread shocks hitting in recessionary regimes create significantly deeper and more...