Reinforced Urn Processes (RUPs) represent a flexible class of Bayesian nonparametric models suitable for dealing with possibly right-censored and left-truncated observations. A reliable estimation of their hyper-parameters is however missing in the literature. We therefore propose an extension...

We introduce the Quantum Alarm System, a novel framework that combines the informational advantages of quantum majorization applied to tail pseudo-correlation matrices with the learning capabilities of a reinforced urn process, to predict financial turmoil and market crashes. This integration...

Using a Bi-variate Reinforced Urn Process (B-RUP), a novel way of modeling the dependence of coupled lifetimes is introduced, with application to the pricing of joint and survivor annuities. In line with the machine learning paradigm, the model is able to improve its performances over time, but...

An alternative generating mechanism for non-strict bivariate Archimedean copulas via the Lorenz curve of a positive random variable is proposed. Lorenz curves have been extensively studied in economics and statistics to characterize wealth inequality and tail risk. In this paper, these curves...

We propose Quantum Majorization as a way of comparing and ranking correlation matrices, with the aim of assessing portfolio risk in a unified framework. Quantum majorization is a partial order in the space of correlation matrices, which are evaluated through their spectra. We discuss the...

We introduce a novel approach to risk management, based on the study of concentration measures of the loss distribution. We show that indices like the Gini index, especially when restricted to the tails by conditioning and truncation, give us an accurate way of assessing the variability of the...

We propose a new jump-diffusion process, the Heston-Queue-Hawkes (HQH) model, combining the well-known Heston model and the recently introduced Queue-Hawkes (Q-Hawkes) jump process. Like the Hawkes process, the HQH model can capture the effects of self-excitation and contagion. However, since...

We propose an alternative approach to the modeling of the positive dependence between the probability of default and the loss given default in a portfolio of exposures, using a bivariate urn process. The model combines the power of Bayesian nonparametrics and statistical learning, allowing for...

In this short note we are interested in the distribution of Italian firm size by age. In the wake of other recent work, such as Cabral and Mata (2003) [On the evolution of firm size distribution: facts and theory. American Economic Review 93, 1075-1090] for Portuguese companies, we aim to verify...

Pareto distributions, and power laws in general, have demonstrated to be very useful models to describe very different phenomena, from physics to finance. In recent years, the econophysical literature has proposed a large amount of papers and models justifying the presence of power laws in...