This study analyzes global inflation synchronization and derives policy implications for the Korean economy. Unlike previous studies that assume a single global inflation factor, this study investigates if inflation in Korea can be explained further by other global inflation factors. Our...

■ The disinflation in recent years has been significantly influenced by the changes in external conditions and sagging domestic aggregate demand. For 2017, inflation is projected to remain at a low level. ○ An empirical analysis found that fluctuations in consumer prices are significantly...

Korean Abstract:■ 최근의 물가상승률 하락은 국내 총수요의 부진과 함께 대외 여건 변화에도 상당 부분 영향을 받은 것으로 추정되는 한편, 내년에도 소비자물가는 낮은 상승세를 지속할 전망 ○ 실증분석 결과, 소비자물가의...

The main purpose of this paper is to scrutinize the time-varying relative importance of the permanent and the transitory shocks to the U.S. real GDP. After accounting for the cointegration relation between real GDP, consumption, and investment, we find that i) the real permanent shock played a...

The objective of this paper is to suggest a new predictive system for international trade, based on an unobserved component model. We employ the predictive system developed by Pastor and Stambaugh (2009), which is unlike other conventional predictive regression models. This paper derives an...

■ This study shows that, as an oil-importing economy, rising oil prices serve to diminish Korea’s household purchasing power and escalate production costs. The level to which economic entities are affected varies greatly depending on the degree of cost shifting. ■ According to the analysis...

Korean Abstract:■ 유가 상승은 그 자체로 원유 수입국인 한국경제에 가계 구매력 감소와 기업 생산비용 증가를 유발하며, 경제주체별 영향은 기업의 증가한 생산비용이 비석유제품가격으로 전가되는 정도에 따라 크게 다를 수...

This paper provides an underlying reason for why recent Bayesian trend-cycle decompositions of U.S. real GDP differ despite using identical unobserved components models. We stress that a pitfall in estimating unobserved components models accounts for the divergence in the empirical conclusions....