This paper presents a new model for studying international capital flows and debt dynamics that emphasizes the role played by expectations concerning future trade flows and returns. I use the model to estimate the drivers of the U.S. external position and capital flows between 1973 and 2008. The...

Dark matter accounts for 83 percent of the matter in the universe and plays a central role in cosmology modeling. This paper argues that an analogous form of dark matter plays a similarly important role in international macroeconomics. Exchange-rate dark matter is invisible, but its existence...

This paper considers the case for universal child allowances in Ghana. It follows findings from an earlier study of 14 middle income countries that examined optimal approaches to reduce child poverty using universal categorical child allowances. The paper describes the demographic profiles that...

I use Forex trading data to study how risks associated with the lack of liquidity contribute to the dynamics of 17 spot exchange rates through their time-varying contributions to risk premia. I find that liquidity risk matters. All the foreign exchange risk premia compensate investors for...

This paper analyses the proposals contained in the Government GreenPaper, A New Contract for Welfare: Partnership in Pensions for low paidworkers and the potential of the new rules to guarantee a decent incomein old age. It discusses the general principles inherent in the design ofthe British...

Welfare to work policy is central to British reforms of itswelfare state and social security system. We are not alonein our desire to assist unemployed and other claimants tofind and retain work. It is therefore important to be able tolook to other countries and consider lessons that could...

I examine the behavior of forex prices around the setting of the 4:00 pm WMR Fix. Numerous banks have been fined by regulators for their trading activities around the Fix, but the overall impact of their actions is not known. I first examine trading patterns around the Fix in a microstructure...

Abstract This paper examines the market-wide effects of front-running and information-sharing by dealers in a quantitive microstructure model of Forex trading. Recent investigations by government regulators and court proceedings reveal that there has been widespread sharing of information among...