FocusOur paper provides a fresh take on the way the US dollar exchange rate influences the volume of global trade. We take as our starting point the substantial financing needs of the long supply chains, or global value chains (GVCs), that underpin trade in manufactured goods. These financial...

This paper presents a "time-to-build" theory of supply chains which implies a key role for the financing of working capital as a determinant of supply chain length. We apply our theory to offshoring and trade, where firms strike a balance between the productivity gain due to offshoring against...

This paper compares three types of early warning indicators of financial instability – those based on financial market prices, those based on normalized measures of total credit and those based on liabilities of financial intermediaries. Prices perform well as concurrent indicators of market...