By following the spirit in Favero and Milani (2005), we use recursive thick modeling to take into account model uncertainty for the choice of optimal monetary policy. We consider an open economy model and generate multiple models for only the aggregate demand and aggregate supply. Models are...

The choice of monetary policy is the most important concern of central banks, but this choice is always confronted with two relevant aspects of economic policy: parameter instability and model uncertainty. This paper deals with both types of uncertainty and shows that recursive thick modeling is...

We use a machine learning algorithm called Adaboost to find direction-of-change patterns for the Samp;P 500 index using daily prices from 1962 to 2004. The patterns are able to identify periods to take long and short positions in the index. This result, however, can largely be explained by...

Previous empirical studies have shown that predictive regressions in which model uncertainty is assessed and propagated generate desirable properties when predicting out-of-sample. However, it is still not clear (a) what the important conditioning variables for predicting stock returns...

We examine the relation between monthly stock returns and lagged publicly available information. Our primary objective is to determine whether the variables proposed in the literature to predict the equity premium contain incremental information to an investor. We find that certain variables do...

After analysing the evolution of exports from the large Latin American countries over the last decade, and examining on a case by case basis the determinants for each country’s performance, this study concludes that competitiveness in the manufacturing sectors of most countries in...

Tras analizar conjuntamente la evolucion de las exportaciones de los principales paises latinoamericanos en la ultima decada y examinar caso a caso los determinantes del desempeno de cada pai­s, este estudio concluye que la competitividad del sector manufacturero en la mayoria de los paises...

In this note a one-state, one-control variable quadratic linear problem with robust control and discount factor is developed to examine the optimal response of the first-period control to changes in future model uncertainty. A change in future model uncertainty has an effect on the optimal...

After analysing the evolution of exports from the large Latin American countries over the last decade, and examining on a case by case basis the determinants for each country's performance, this study concludes that competitiveness in the manufacturing sectors of most countries in the region...

Spanish Abstract: Tras analizar conjuntamente la evolución de las exportaciones de los principales países latinoamericanos en la última década y examinar caso a caso los determinantes del desempeño de cada país, este estudio concluye que la competitividad del sector manufacturero en la...