This paper constructs a theoretical model to show how the credibility of a country s commitment to an international gold standard regime is driven by fundamental determinants such as: 1) shifts in domestic policy, 2) a breakdown in cooperation between central banks, and 3) unilateral...

This paper addresses two questions. First, what causes the paper-bill spread to vary over time in anticipation of income fluctuations ? Second, why has the predictive power of the spread declined in recent years? Consistent with previous empirical work, the paper provides evidence for the...

This paper constructs a theoretical model to show how the credibility of a country’s commitment to an international gold standard regime is driven by fundamental determinants such as: 1) shifts in domestic policy, 2) a breakdown in cooperation between central banks, and 3) unilateral...

This paper addresses two questions. First, what causes the paper-bill spread to vary over time in anticipation of income fluctuations’? Second, why has the predictive power of the spread declined in recent years? Consistent with previous empirical work, the paper provides evidence for the...

The spread between the yields on six-month commercial paper and six-month Treasury bills (the paper-bill spread) has been shown to be a good predictor of macroeconomic variables such as GDP and real income, at least through the mid-1980s. In this working paper, Ferderer, Vogt, and Chahil explore...

In the 1970s the Federal Reserve began a policy of targeting monetary growth. Those who viewed this as a positive development felt that such a policy would allow the Fed to signal its intentions to be firm in its pursuit of an anti-inflationary agenda. Moreover, if the Fed could pursue its...