We propose a protocol for identifying genuine risk factors. A genuine risk factor must be related to the covariance matrix of returns, must be priced in the cross-section of returns, and should yield a reward-to-risk ratio that is reasonable enough to be consistent with risk pricing. A market...

We employ a semi-supervised topic model to extract the rare disaster risks and economic narratives from 7,000,000 NYT articles over 160 years. Our approach addresses the look-ahead bias and changes in semantics. War positively predicts market return in- and out-of-sample, while the economic...

Using a semi-supervised topic model on 7,000,000 New York Times articles spanning 160 years, we test whether topics of media discourse predict future stock and bond market returns to test rational and behavioral hypotheses about market valuation of disaster risk. Focusing on media discourse...

We analyze the daily predictability of investor sentiment across four major asset classes and compare sentiment measures based on news and social media with those based on trade information. For the majority of assets, trade-based sentiment measures outperform their text-based equivalents for...

To attenuate an inherent errors-in-variables bias, portfolios are widely employed for risk premium estimation; but portfolios might diversify away and thus mask relevant risk- or return-related features of individual assets. We propose a resolution that allows the use of individual assets while...

This article proposes a theoretical testable ICAPM for partially segmented markets. We establish that if some investors do not hold all international assets because of implicit and/or explicit segmentation factors, the world market portfolio is not efficient and the classic ICAPM must be...

This article proposes a theoretical testable ICAPM for partially segmented markets. We establish that if some investors do not hold all international assets because of implicit and/or explicit segmentation factors, the world market portfolio is not efficient and the classic ICAPM must be...

This paper examines the patterns of intraday cojumps between international equity markets as well as their impact on international asset holdings and portfolio diversification benefits. Using intraday index-based data for exchange-traded funds as proxies for international equity markets, we...