Market sentiments influence the dynamics of Hong Kong’s macro-critical property market, but the unobservable nature of market sentiments makes it difficult to assess systemically this sentiment channel. Using text-mining techniques, this paper sets up a news-based property market sentiment...

What the market thinks is most likely to occur is not necessarily what the market expects to occur. This note explains why most of the surveys of federal funds rate outlook deviate substantially from the true market expectation, especially as the forecast horizon increases. Surveys often ask...

Driven largely by unique economic and political factors, Hong Kong SAR was a globalised economy long before the advent of global value chains in the 1990s. In particular, Hong Kong's role as a link between Mainland China and the rest of the world strengthened over time, as did its status as an...

We investigate the relationship between net inflow to mutual bond funds that invest in emerging market economies (EMEs) and the past performance of these funds. Our main finding is that EME bond funds display a convex flow-performance relationship. In other words, past performance is a...

This paper estimates the degree of wage and price flexibility of the Hong Kong economy with the use of a stylised dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model developed for the Hong Kong economy. It also studies the factors contributing to deflation in Hong Kong following the Asian...

Hong Kong's inflation is heavily influenced by the development in the property market, as property prices can affect the CPI through the CPI rental component, rental cost effect on service fees and charges, and the wealth effect on aggregate demand. Therefore, the deployment of countercyclical...

We present a microfounded two-country model of global imbalances and debt deleveraging. A sustained rise in saving in one country can lead to a worldwide fall in interest rates and an accumulation of debt in the other country. When a subsequent deleveraging shock occurs, interest rates are...

In shaping the evolution of the global financial system in the decade ahead, few events will likely be more significant than capital account liberalisation in China and the internationalisation of the renminbi. This paper provides a theory-based enquiry into the contours of China's international...

The use of international currencies in the global financial system is not symmetric: while a few currencies have been primarily used as investing currencies, a few others have mostly served as funding currencies; only a handful have a better balance functioning as both investing and funding...