We quantify the impact of unexpectedly assigned tasks on overtime work in the context of Japanese government officials. Data on overtime work are typically less reliable. We overcome this problem by using mobile phone location data, which enables us to precisely measure the nighttime population...

Much research has been concerned with forecast efficiency regressions. Recently, Patton and Timmermann (2012) proposed a more powerful kind of forecast efficiency regression at multiple horizons, which provides evidence against the efficiency of the Fed's Greenbook forecasts. I use their...

Since 2007, FOMC policymakers have been publishing detailed numerical projections of macroeconomic series over the next three years. By testing whether the revisions to these projections are unpredictable, I find that FOMC's efficiency is generally accepted for inflation, but often rejected for...

This paper investigates the effects of monetary policy announcements at the zero lower bound using Japanese data from 1998 to 2013. I find that the effect of expansionary monetary policy shocks is directly passed on to corporate bond yields, notably for high-grade corporate bond yields. However,...

We quantify the impact of unexpectedly assigned tasks on overtime work in the context of Japanese government officials. Data on overtime work are typically less reliable. We overcome this problem by using mobile phone location data, which enables us to precisely measure the nighttime population...

This paper examines the spillovers of US credit supply to small open economies by focusing on three Asian economies, Korea, Singapore, and Taiwan, from 1999 to 2019. We employ a proxy vector autoregressive model (VAR) to identify credit supply shocks in the US and estimate dynamic responses in...

This paper examines whether the economic projections made by individual policymakers of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) are consistent with macroeconomic facts and theories. By analyzing the projections between 2007 and 2016, this paper finds that they are consistent with Okun's law,...

We estimate long-term peer effects in the workplace by investigating whether working with a future executive makes junior employees more likely to be promoted. Using the data on comprehensive career history at the Japanese central administration from 1946 to 2019, we find that long-term peer...

We quantify the impact of unexpectedly assigned tasks on overtime work in the context of Japanese government officials. Data on overtime work are typically less reliable. We overcome this problem by using mobile phone location data, which enables us to precisely measure the nighttime population...