Fama and French (2002) estimate the equity premium using dividend growth rates to measure expected rates of capital gain. We use a similar method to study the value premium. From 1941 to 2005, the expected HML return is on average 6.0% per annum, consisting of an expected dividend-growth...

Fama and French (2002) estimate the equity premium using dividend growth rates to measure expected rates of capital gain. We apply their method to study the value premium. From 1945 to 2005, the expected value premium is on average 6.1% per annum, consisting of an expected dividend-growth...

Fama and French (2002) estimate the equity premium using dividend growth rates to measure the expected rate of capital gain. We use similar methods to study the value premium. From 1941 to 2002, the expected HML return is on average 5.1% per annum, consisting of an expected-dividend-growth...

Investors hold portfolios of assets with different risk-reward profiles for diversification benefits. Conditional on the volatility of assets, diversification benefits can vary over time depending on the correlation structure among asset returns. The correlation of returns between assets has...

Using data on investor beliefs about future Bitcoin prices, we examine how investors form expectations about Bitcoin returns. We find that investors extrapolate from Bitcoin’s past returns, with more weight on recent returns. Compared to institutional investors, such extrapolative beliefs are...

We show that the magnitude of the value premium over 1968-2018 is conditional on states of aggregate market-wide misvaluation. The value premium is 3.42% per month following market-wide undervaluation and 1.70% per month following market-wide overvaluation. When the aggregate market is neither...

In this paper, we explain momentum profits using innovations in aggregate economy-wide default risk. First, we show that momentum returns are positive only during high default shocks and nonexistent otherwise. Second, we present evidence suggesting that a conditional default shock factor is...

We study the liquidity exposures of value and growth stocks over business cycles. In worst times, value stocks have higher liquidity betas than in best times, while the opposite holds for growth stocks. Small value stocks have higher liquidity exposures than small growth stocks in worst times,...