China’s exchange rate reform, initiated in 2005, had the goal of switching from a fixed U.S. dollar (USD) peg to a floating mechanism with reference to a trade-weighted currency basket. Over a decade of gradual transition, the renminbi (RMB) has gained importance in the international monetary...

We employ Bayesian method to estimate a time-varying coefficient version of the de facto currency basket model of Frankel and Wei (2007) for the RMB of China, using daily data from February 2005 to July 2011. We estimate jointly the implicit time-varying weights of all 11 currencies in the...

We employ a Bayesian method to estimate a time-varying coefficient version of the de facto currency basket model of Frankel and Wei (2007) for the RMB of China, using daily data from February 2005 to July 2011. We estimate jointly the implicit time-varying weights of all 11 currencies in the...

It is well documented in the literature that individual saving decisions vary with the life cycle and at the macroeconomic level, a changing demographic age structure affects aggregated savings, which then drives a slow movement of interest rates. In this paper, we propose a semiparametric...

We estimate a time-varying regression model to study the relationship between returns in the Shanghai and New York stock markets, with possible inclusion of lagged returns. The parameters of the regressions reveal that the effect of the current stock return for New York on that for Shanghai...

We propose the use of a local autoregressive (LAR) model for adaptive estimation and forecasting of three of China’s key macroeconomic variables: GDP growth, inflation and the 7-day interbank lending rate. The approach takes into account possible structural changes in the data-generating...