We develop a strong diagnostic for bubbles and crashes in bitcoin, by analyzing the coincidence (and its absence) of fundamental and technical indicators. Using a generalized Metcalfe's law based on network properties, a fundamental value is quantified and shown to be heavily exceeded, on at...

Bitcoin represents one of the most interesting technological breakthroughs and socio-economic experiments of the last decades. In this paper, we examine the role of speculative bubbles in the process of Bitcoin's technological adoption by analyzing its social dynamics. We trace Bitcoin's genesis...

We develop the concept of “dragon-kings” corresponding to meaningful outliers, which are found to coexist with power laws in the distributions of event sizes under a broad range of conditions in a large variety of systems. These dragon-kings reveal the existence of mechanisms of...

We present a self-consistent model for explosive financial bubbles, which combines a mean-reverting volatility process and a stochastic conditional return which reflects nonlinear positive feedbacks and continuous updates of the investors' beliefs and sentiments. The conditional expected returns...

The opposition in a number of countries to the inclusion of nuclear energy in a sustainable energy portfolio, in part due to the dread of what the “nuclear” word inspires, has limited quantitative scientific foundation of the real benefits and risks. This has been amplified by the lack of a...

We present strong evidence that financial bubbles can be identified ex-ante and that a sharp price increase, when suitably qualified by a bubble indicator called LPPLS confidence, does on average predict unusually low returns going forward. For this, we use a methodology called log-periodic...

We develop the concept of "dragon-kings'' corresponding to meaningful outliers, which are found to coexist with power laws in the distributions of event sizes under a broad range of conditions in a large variety of systems. These dragon-kings reveal the existence of mechanisms of...

The financial crisis of 2008, which started with an initially well-defined epicenter focused on mortgage backed securities (MBS), has been cascading into a global economic recession, whose increasing severity and uncertain duration has led and is continuing to lead to massive losses and damage...