The emergence of novelty is a driving agent for economic change. New technologies, new products and services, new institutional arrangements, to mention a few examples, are the backbone of development and growth. Important though it is, the emergence of novelty is not well understood. What seems...

Even the most rudimentary training from Economics 101 starts with demand curves going down and supply curves going up. They are so 'natural' that they sound even more obvious than the Euclidian postulates in mathematics. But are they? What do they actually mean? Start with "demand curves". Are...

Cybernetics is the science of effective organization, i.e. the science that describes the general principles of growth, learning and adaptation in complex, dynamical systems.Stafford Beer regards his viable system model as a design for effective formal organization. He also declares that since...

The paper develops a dynamical systems approach to study asset bubbles in OLG economies with stochastic production. We derive necessary and sufficient conditions for bubbly equilibria to exist and chracterize the maximum sustainable bubble. Even if they exist, bubbles are temporary and the...

We introduce a class of evolutionary game dynamics - pairwise comparison dynamics - under which revising agents choose a candidate strategy at random, switching to it with positive probability if and only if its payoff is higher than the agent's current strategy. We prove that all such dynamics...

This text was written as part of the project "Modelling of Complex Systems for Public Policy". It reviews the classical authors who jointly contributed to establish the elements of what could constitute a "science of complexity". Based on the original writings of these authors, the text...

This text was written as part of the project "Modelling of Complex Systems for Public Policy". It reviews the classical authors who jointly contributed to establish the elements of what could constitute a "science of complexity". Based on the original writings of these authors, the text...

A key aim of economics is to set goals and investigate the relationship between various socio-economic indicators. By fitting time series data using a Bayesian dynamical systems approach we identify non-linear interactions between GDP, child mortality, fertility rate and female education. We...

Global emissions beyond 44 gigatonnes of carbondioxide equivalent (GtCO2e) in 2020 can potentially lead the world to an irreversible climate change. Employing a novel dynamical system modeling approach, we predict that in a business-asusual scenario, it will reach 61 GtCO2e by 2020. Testing...