The paper discusses a new, fully recursive approach to the adaptive modeling, forecasting and seasonal adjustment of nonstationary economic time-series. The procedure is based around a time variable parameter (TVP) version of the well known “component” or “structural” model. It employs a...

Among the alternative Unobserved Components formulations within the stochastic state space setting, the Dynamic Harmonic Regression (DHR) has proved particularly useful for adaptive seasonal adjustment signal extraction, forecasting and back-casting of time series. Here, we show first how to...

Book abstract: Compared with coverage of organizational innovation, public sector financial innovation has tended to be neglected in the literature. When it has been considered, the strong focus of classical public finance for optimal taxation and tax types has overshadowed new and interesting...

The contemporary understanding of public sector risk management entails a broadening of the traditional bureaucratic approach to risk beyond the boundaries of purely financial risks. However, evidence suggests that in reality public sector risk management does not always match the rhetoric. This...

Various bodies have recently discussed the apparent crisis facing the commercial insurance market and the underwriting of employers' liability insurance. As major employers who have traditionally used this market, local authorities would be expected to be heavily exposed to such a crisis....

Contemporary business outsourcing has extended beyond manufacturing to include service sector industries, including insurance. There are developed theoretical arguments that both support and reject insurance claims handling as a service that should be determined by the market and outsourced...