Recent experimental research suggests that decision makers tend to overweight rare events when responding to a description of the possible outcomes, but tend to underweight low probability events in decisions from experience. The current paper examines whether in an experiential setting...

Economics

Erev, Ert, and Roth organized three choice prediction competitions focused on three related choice tasks: one shot decisions from description (decisions under risk), one shot decisions from experience, and repeated decisions from experience. Each competition was based on two experimental...

This paper examines how observing other people's behavior affects risk taking in repeated decision tasks. In Study 1, 100 participants performed experience-based decision tasks either alone or in pairs, with the two members being exposed to each others' choices and outcomes. The tasks involved...

Previous research demonstrates overestimation of rare events in judgment tasks, and underweighting of rare events in decisions from experience. The current paper presents three laboratory experiments and a field study that explore this pattern. The results suggest that the overestimation and...

One of the robust regularities of stock markets is the asymmetric relation between stock returns and their subsequent volatility, commonly referred to as the 'leverage effect'. In the current paper we present a psychological model linking between gains and losses, choice volatility, and market...

A choice prediction competition is organized that focuses on decisions from experience in market entry games (http://sites.google.com/site/gpredcomp/ and http://www.mdpi.com/si/games/predict-behavior/). The competition is based on two experiments: An estimation experiment, and a competition...

Ion Juvina found an error in our manuscript published in Games.

Two independent, but related, choice prediction competitions are organized that focus on behavior in simple two-person extensive form games (http://sites.google.com/site/extformpredcomp/): one focuses on predicting the choices of the first mover and the other on predicting the choices of the...