We study the effects of central bank communication about financial stability on individuals' expectations and risk-taking. Using a randomized information experiment, we show that communication causally affects individuals' beliefs and investment behavior, consistent with an expectations channel...

We study the effects of central bank communication about financial stability on individuals' expectations and risk-taking. Using a randomized information experiment, we show that communication causally affects individuals' beliefs and investment behavior, consistent with an expectations channel...

We study the effects of central bank communication about financial stability on individuals’ expectations and risk-taking. Using a randomized information experiment, we show that communication causally affects individuals’ beliefs and investment behavior, consistent with an expectations...

Using a randomized information experiment embedded in a representative survey, we study households' economic expectations at onset of the COVID-19 crisis. Our experimental evidence indicates that households are not fully aware of what is happening in the economy shortly after the pandemic...

We study the effects of central bank communication about financial stability on individuals’ expectations and risk-taking. Using a randomized information experiment, we show that communication causally affects individuals’ beliefs and investment behavior, consistent with an expectations...

This paper describes the Bundesbank's weekly financial stress indicator for Germany. The indicator condenses several financial market variables into a summary measure of financial stress. It represents a contemporaneous, market-based indicator that captures the materialisation of systemic risk...

This paper investigates the international spillover effects of U.S. trade protection. Using micro-level data on anti-dumping, countervailing duties, and safeguards, I develop a new measure of U.S. trade policy announcement shocks for the period 1988-2015 that is free of confounding factors....

We study the link between the global financial cycle and macroeconomic tail risks using quantile vector autoregressions. Contractionary shocks to financial conditions and monetary policy in the United States cause elevated downside risks to growth around the world. By tightening financial...

The cross-sectional average of pairwise correlations across stocks traded on the NYSE, AMEX, and Nasdaq is a powerful predictor of U.S. economic activity at a horizon of one to four years. Its predictive ability is on a par with the slope of the yield curve and significantly exceeds that of some...

The uncertainty of U.S. core inflation, measured by the stochastic volatility of forecast errors, has soared to a level not seen in nearly five decades since the COVID-19 pandemic hit the global economy. Prices, consumption, and production increase after a positive shock to core inflation...