This paper examines how newspaper reporting affects government bond prices during the U.S. state default of the 1840s. Using unsupervised machine learning algorithms, the paper constructs novel “fiscal information indices” for state governments based on U.S. newspapers at the time. The...

Following the onset of the pandemic, the Federal Reserve employed an unconventional monetary policy that directly intervened in municipal bond markets. We characterize the fiscal and macroeconomic implications of such central bank actions in a New Keynesian model of a monetary union. We assume...

This paper studies fiscal policy effects in developing countries with external debt and sovereign default risks. State-dependent distributions of fiscal limits are simulated based on macroeconomic uncertainty and fiscal policy specifications. The analysis shows that expected future revenue plays...

The paper is organized around the following question: when the economy moves from a debtGDP level where the probability of default is nil to a higher level the "fiscal limit" where the default probability is non-negligible, how do the effects of routine monetary operations designed to achieve...