This paper models an economy in which it is costly to move resources between the tradeable and nontradeable sectors. The economy is subject to capital flows that are unpredictable and are perceived as having only limited persistence. The model shows that both the fact that capital flows are...

There is a widespread view that world payments imbalances can be remedied through increased demand in surplus countries and reduced demand in deficit countries, without any need for real exchange rate changes. In fact shifts in demand and real exchange rate adjustment are necessary couplets, not...

This paper develops a highly simplified model of exchange rate behavior within the band under a target zone regime. It shows that the expectation that authorities will defend the band exerts a stabilizing effect on exchange rate behavior within the band, even when the authorities are not...

This paper is concerned with the reasons why some currencies, such as the pound sterling and the U.S. dollar, have come to serve as "vehicles" for exchanges of other currencies. It develops a three-country model of payments equilibrium with transaction costs, and shows how one currency can...

This paper develops a model in which the rivalry of oligopolistic firms serves as an independent cause of international trade. The model shows how such rivalry naturally gives rise to "dumping" of output in foreign markets, and shows that such dumping can be "reciprocal" -- that is, there may be...

This paper presents evidence strongly suggesting that the current strength of the dollar reflects myopic behavior by international investors; that is, that part of the dollar's strength can be viewed as a speculative bubble. At some point this bubble will burst, leading to a sharp fall in the...

We show that agglomeration forces can reverse standard international-tax-competition results. Closer integration may result first in a race to the top' and then a race to the bottom, a result that is consistent with recent empirical work showing that the tax gap between rich and poor nations...

This paper argues that Japan's export growth is likely to slow sharply over the next few years, perhaps to zero. For the past dozen years Japan's export volume has gown much more rapidly than her domestic production. This divergence was made necessary primarily by rising oil prices, and...

The actual value added tax systems used in many countries differ significantly from the completely general VAT that has been the focus of most economic analyses. In practice, VAT systems exempt broad classes of consumer goods and services. This has important implications for the effect of the...

This paper reviews recent work on the relationship between industrial organization and international trade. Five strands in the theoretical literature are discussed. First is the role of economies of scale as a cause of intra-industry trade, modelled using monopolistic competition. Second is the...