This paper provides a comprehensive evaluation of the short-horizon predictive ability of economic fundamentals and forward premiums on monthly exchange-rate returns in a framework that allows for volatility timing. We implement Bayesian methods for estimation and ranking of a set of empirical...

The main objective of this paper is to propose a feasible, model free estimator of the predictive density of integrated volatility. In this sense, we extend recent papers by Andersen et a]. [Andersen, T.G., Bollerslev,T., Diebold, FX, Labys, P., 2003. Modelling and forecasting realized...

This article makes two contributions. First, we outline a simple simulation-based framework for constructing conditional distributions for multifactor and multidimensional diffusion processes, for the case where the functional form of the conditional density is unknown. The distributions can be...

This paper reexamines the validity of the expectation hypothesis (EH) of the term structure of US repo rates ranging in maturity from overnight to 3 months. We extend the work of Longstaff [2000b. The term Structure of very short term rates: new evidence for the expectations hypothesis. journal...

This paper reconsiders a block bootstrap procedure for Quasi Maximum Likelihood estimation of GARCH models, based on the resampling of the likelihood function, as proposed by Goncalves and White [2004. Maximum likelihood and the bootstrap for nonlinear dynamic models. journal of Econometrics...