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Inflation and Real Activity over the Business Cycle
Bianchi, Francesco; Nicolò, Giovanni; Song, Dongho - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2023
We study the relation between inflation and real activity over the business cycle. We employ a Trend-Cycle VAR model to … control for low-frequency movements in inflation, unemployment, and growth that are pervasive in the post-WWII period. We show … that cyclical fluctuations of inflation are related to cyclical movements in real activity and unemployment, in line with …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014247995
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Monitoring the economy in real time : trends and gaps in real activity and prices
Hasenzagl, Thomas; Pellegrino, Filippo; Reichlin, Lucrezia - 2022
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012939995
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Housing cycles in Switzerland : a time-varying approach
Drechsel, Dirk - 2015 - Preliminary version
In light of the strong increase of house prices in Switzerland, we analyze the effects of mortgage rate shocks, changes in the interplay between housing demand and supply and GDP growth on house prices for the time period 1981- 2014. We employ Bayesian time-varying coefficients vector...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010526684
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Inflation, War Bonds, and the Rise of Republicans in the 1950s
Brunet, Gillian; Hilt, Eric; Jaremski, Matthew S. - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2023
We study the role of war bonds and inflation in the presidential elections of the 1950s. During World War II, the … promotion of savings bonds made Americans more sensitive to the high inflation that prevailed after the war, contributing to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014447290
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Bad jobs and low inflation
Melosi, Leonardo; Faccini, Renato - 2019
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012130313
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The downward glide of the natural rate of unemployment during cyclical recoveries could explain flat phillips curves
Hall, Robert Ernest; Kudlyak, Marianna - 2023
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014383638
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Inflation dynamics and the Great Recession
Ball, Laurence M.; Mazumder, Sandeep - 2011
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009129711
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Time-varying Phillips curves
Vavra, Joseph S. - 2014
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010235326
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A new approach to identifying the real effects of uncertainty shocks
Shin, Minchul; Zhong, Molin - 2016 - This version: April 25, 2016
This paper proposes a multivariate stochastic volatility-in-vector autoregression model called the conditional autoregressive inverse Wishart-in-VAR (CAIW-in-VAR) model as a framework for studying the real effects of uncertainty shocks. We make three contributions to the literature. First, the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011500382
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Back to the 1980s or Not? : The Drivers of Inflation and Real Risks in Treasury Bonds
Pflueger, Carolin E. - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2023
, demand shocks, and monetary policy are the fundamental drivers of inflation. Endogenously time-varying risk premia imply that …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014226118