Non-Linearities Related to the Financial Sector: Mittnik, S., Semmler, W.: Estimating a Banking-Macro Model Using a Multi-Regime VAR -- Martínez-García, E.: U.S. Business Cycles, Monetary Policy and the External Finance Premium -- Gallegati, M.: Early Warning Signals of Financial Stress: A...

In this paper we study the macroeconomic effects of large exchange rate appreciations. In a sample of 128 countries since 1960, we identify 25 episodes of large nominal and real appreciations shocks and study their macroeconomic effects in a dummy-augmented panel autoregressive model. Our...

1 Introduction.- 2 Literature Review -- 3 Descriptive Analysis -- 4 Determinants of Business Cycle Synchronistion -- 5 Shock Propagation Mechanisms and Business Cycle Convergence -- 6 Summary and Policy Implications -- 7 Appendix -- References

In spite of the widespread use of the concept of potential output in economic theory and empirical applications as well as in economic policy debates, the historical background and the assumptions inherent to this concept are rarely made transparent, let alone critically questioned. Against this...