David Hendry has made major contributions to many areas of economic forecasting. He has developed a taxonomy of forecast errors and a theory of unpredictability that have yielded valuable insights into the nature of forecasting. He has also provided new perspectives on many existing forecast...

Stekler and Symington (2016) construct indexes that quantify the Federal Open Market Committee's views about the U.S. economy, as expressed in the minutes of the FOMC's meetings. These indexes provide insights on the FOMC's deliberations, especially at the onset of the Great Recession. The...

Michael Clements and David Hendry make realistic assumptions about the nature of the economy and the models used to forecast it. Under those assumptions, Clements and Hendry clarify why forecasting models work when they do, and why they don't work when they don't. Their research also suggests...