A canonical model is described which reflects the real-time informational context of decision-making. Comparisons are drawn with ‘conventional’ models that incorrectly omit market-informed insights on future macroeconomic conditions and inappropriately incorporate information that was not...

This article presents new evidence on the ability of Peacock and Wiseman's displacement hypothesis to explain temporal increases in the ratio of government expenditure to Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the UK. Using univariate modelling techniques that are robust to structural changes in the...

The link between skill acquisition and earnings is one of the cornerstones of labour economics. The conventional view is that, all else being equal, workers with relatively higher stocks of embedded skills will receive a relatively higher return when supplying labour. The link between skills and...

This paper applies the Switching ARCH (SWARCH) model of Hamilton and Susmel (1994) to investigate the dynamics of deviations from Uncovered Interest Parity (UIP) for Malaysia for the sample period 1978-2002. In particular, the deviations (or the risk premium) are modelled as a time series...

This impressive Handbook presents the quantitative techniques that are commonly employed in empirical finance research together with real-world, state-of-the-art research examples.

We study the effects of growth volatility and inflation volatility on average rates of output growth and inflation for post-war US data. Our results suggest that increased growth uncertainty is associated with significantly lower average growth, while higher inflation uncertainty is...