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We propose a method for forecasting bank solvency that quantifies bank solvency as the probability that a bank will have more than 0.25 of the cash to total asset ratio. Predictor variables include the ratio of loans secured by farmland to total loans, the ratio of loans to farmers to total...
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We study a modification of the Diamond and Dybvig (1983) model in which the bank may hold a liquid asset, some depositors see sunspots that could lead them to run, and all depositors have incomplete information about the bank's ability to survive a run. The incomplete information means that the...
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