This paper examines the ability of financial variables to predict future economic growth above and beyond past economic activity in a small open economy in the euro area. We aim to clarify potential differences in forecasting economic activity during different economic circumstances.

The long-term validity of the law-of-one-price hypothesis is explored empirically in international markets for individual commodities. The data consist of 10 commodity groups: lead, maize, newsprint, rice, rubber, sugar, tin, wheat, wool, and zinc. The results provide broad support for the...

A substantial body of stylized facts and empirical evidence exists regarding the relationships between financial variables and the macroeconomy in the United States. However, the question of whether this evidence is consistent with the cases of small open economies is less known. This paper...

This paper investigates cointegration with respect to nine commodity groups traded on international markets. Nonparametric bootstrapping is utilized in the testing procedure. Of the 21 pairs of price series, investigated here, for 13 the no-cointegration null hypothesis is rejected in favour for...

Purpose This paper examines the predictive content of financial variables above and beyond past GDP growth in a small open economy in the Eurozone. We aim to clarify potential differences in forecasting economic activity during periods of steady growth and economic turbulence....