This paper provides rules for anticipating business-cycle recessions and recoveries for countries showing asymmetric cycle durations. Based on a Schumpeterian framework, we analyze business cycles as sums of short-, medium-, and long-term cycles defined for a particular class of unobserved...

Antonio presents a contrasting pair of studies performed during his consulting career, illustrating the conditions that distinguish a successful project outcome from a failure. He offers provocative advice for implementation and management of forecasting projects. Copyright International...

<italic>Introduction</italic>: We use data from Spain on roads and motorways traffic accidents in May 2004 to quantify the statistical association between quick medical response time and mortality rate. <italic>Method</italic>: Probit and logit parameters are estimated by a Bayesian method in which samples from the posterior...

We propose a new conditionally heteroskedastic factor model, the GICA-GARCH model, which combines independent component analysis (ICA) and multivariate GARCH (MGARCH) models. This model assumes that the data are generated by a set of underlying independent components (ICs) that capture the...

This paper is related to the choice of alternative types of public transport modes and its incidence in the Madrid Metropolitan Area. When planning transport facilities, two conditions are needed: efficient estimation of the users' response to changes in prices and in the characteristics of the...

This paper provides rules for anticipating business-cycle recessions and recoveries for countries showing asymmetric cycle durations. Based on a Schumpeterian framework, we analyze business cycles as sums of short-, medium-, and long-term cycles defined for a particular class of unobserved...

We analyze historical business cycles as a sum of short- and medium-term cycles defined for a particular class of unobserved component models. By associating the trend with the low frequencies of the pseudo-spectrum in the frequency domain, manipulation of the spectral bandwidth will allow us to...

This paper analyses the aggregate relationships between traffic accidents and real economic activity in Spain during the last 30 years. Our general approach is based on two basic assumptions: (1) the number of accidents depends on the use of cars and other exogenous variables, and (2) the level...