In this paper, we document a “play-out” effect in preference reversal experiments. We compare data where preferences are elicited using (1) purely hypothetical gambles, (2) played-out, but unpaid gambles and (3) played-out gambles with truth-revealing monetary payments. We ask whether a...

Researchers vigorously debate the impact of incentives in preference reversal experiments. Do incentives alter behavior and generate economically consistent choices? Lichtenstein and Slovic (1971) document inconsistencies (reversals) in revealed preference in gamble pairs across paired choice...

This chapter describes the lottery procedure for inducing preferences over units of experimental exchange and show how it is supported by several experiments on behavior in simple contexts. This chapter reviews various evidence from a set of paired choice and pricing tasks designed to determine...

Each market is related to a specific future event, for instance a presidential election, and contains a set of contracts with liquidation values pegged to the outcome of the future event. Contracts enter into circulation by the voluntary purchase from the IEM trading system of bundles of...

Economic rationality dictates that only incremental costs and benefits should affect decisions. Observed behavior often seems to violate this principle, resulting in unwarranted commitment to past choices and their escalation. In this paper, we present experimental results that show that...

"Prediction markets" are designed specifically to forecast events such as elections. Though election prediction markets have been being conducted for almost twenty years, to date nearly all of the evidence on efficiency compares election eve forecasts with final pre-election polls and actual...

We conducted prediction markets designed to forecast post-initial public offering (IPO) valuations before a particularly unique IPO: Google. The prediction markets forecast Google's post-IPO market capitalization relatively accurately. While Google's auction-based IPO price was 15.3% below the...