Frontmatter -- Preface -- Acknowledgments -- Contents -- Acronyms -- 1 Introduction -- 2 Linear static models -- 3 Dealing with heterogeneity and endogeneity: fixed effects, IV and GMM -- 4 Outliers, missing values and other data issues -- 5 Linear dynamic models -- 6 Models with limited...

We show that the annual excess return of the S&P 500 is almost 10 percent higher during the last two years of the presidential cycle than during the first two years. This pattern cannot be explained by business-cycle variables capturing time-varying risk premia, differences in risk levels, or by...