We focus on ways of combining simple database models with managerial intuition. We present a model and method for isolating managerial intuition. For five different business forecasting situations, our results indicate that a combination of model and manager always outperforms either of these...

This paper describes a Bayesian model-discrimination procedure which determines for each consumer the stochastic model of brand choice which is best supported by his purchasing behavior. The Bayesian technique is illustrated by means of two Markov models and two Bernoulli models. We first...

The purpose of this paper is to derive a model of advertising effects on the firm's sales. A micromodel is postulated and aggregated across individuals and over time to produce a macromodel of the aggregate sales-advertising relationship for a single product. The micromodel postulated is very...

Author's reply to comments by Kruger (Kruger, M. W. 1987. Commentary—Steps toward mastering trade promotions. 147–149.) and Struse (Struse, III, R. W. 1987. Commentary—Approaches to promotion evaluation: A practitioner's viewpoint. 150–151.).

This paper provides an empirical study of entry by a Wal-Mart supercenter into a local market. Using a unique frequent-shopper database that records transactions for over 10,000 customers, we study the impact of Wal-Mart's entry on consumer purchase behavior. We develop a joint model of...

This research focuses on how price changes influence the observed pattern of brand competition. The paper begins with a basic utility model formulation and examines the implications of three major classes of preference distributions on the expected patterns of competition. A price-tier model is...

By synthesizing findings across the sales promotion literature, this article helps the reader understand how promotions work. We identify and explain empirical generalizations related to sales promotion; that is, effects that have been found consistently in multiple studies involving different...

Trade promotions have become an increasingly important element of the marketing mix. Yet, there is very little research describing how to measure the profitability and effectiveness of trade promotions. This paper describes how retailers behave when trade promotions are offered. Then, a model is...