When faced with multi-outcome gambles involving possibilities of both gains and losses, people often use a simple heuristic that maximizes the overall probability of winning (Pwin). Across three different studies, using choice data as well as process data from eye tracking, we demonstrate that...

It has been suggested in the economics literature that strongly risk-averse individuals may tend to gravitate toward large monopolistic firms rather than work for more competitive companies. In this article we provide results of an experiment designed to test this hypothesis. Operating managers...

This investigation draws upon concepts from prospect theory (Kahneman and Tversky [Kahneman, D., A. Tversky. 1979. Prospect theory: an analysis of decisions under risk. Econometrica 47 263--291.]) and multiattribute utility theory (Keeney and Raiffa [Keeney, R. L., H. Raiffa. 1976. Decisions...

Two recent models of risky decision making developed by Fishburn (Fishbijrn, P. C. 1977. Mean-risk analysis with risk associated with below-target returns. Amer. Econ. Rev. 67 116--126.) and by Kahneman and Tversky (Kahneman, D., A. Tversky. 1979. Prospect theory: an analysis of decisions under...

This Note extends the work reported in Payne, Laughhunn, and Crum (Payne, J. W., D. J. Laughhunn, R. Crum. 1980. Translation of gambles and aspiration level effects in risky choice behavior. Management Sci. 26 1039--1060.) on the need to incorporate a target return, reference point, or...

Individuals often use several different strategies such as the expected value rule, conjunctive rule, and elimination-by-aspects, to make decisions. It has been hypothesized that strategy selection is, in part, a function of (1) the ability of a strategy to produce an accurate response and (2)...

This paper reports on the risk preferences for below target returns of 224 managers from the U.S. Canada, and Europe. When only non-ruinous losses were involved, 71% of the managers were risk seeking for below target returns. The distribution of risk preferences tended to be stable over a wide...