The dynamics between five-year US Treasury bonds and interest rate swaps are examined using bivariate threshold autoregressive (BTAR) models to determine the drivers of spread changes and the nature of the lead–lag relation between the two instruments. This model is able to identify the...

In recent years there has been a growing interest in exploiting potential forecast gains from the non-linear structure of self-exciting threshold autoregressive (SETAR) models. Statistical tests have been proposed in the literature to help analysts check for the presence of SETAR-type...