Abstract The conduct of monetary policy during the 1970s was greatly complicated by systematic real-time misperceptions of the state of economic activity as measured by the output gap. Employing real-time data and using the Taylor rule as an analytical framework, I explore the implications of...

Constructing bootstrap confidence intervals for impulse response functions (IRFs) from structural vector autoregression (SVAR) models has become standard practice in empirical macroeconomic research. The accuracy of such confidence intervals can deteriorate severely, however, if the bootstrap...

Purpose – Studies of the cyclical behavior of real wages have identified monetary shocks and examined the response of real wages and output or employment. A finding that real wages are procyclical in response to a positive monetary policy shock is taken as evidence that prices are stickier...