Macroeconomic theory predicts that variations in population cohort sizes will lead to demographically induced real exchange rate movements. While such effects have previously been established for individual countries, this paper exploits cross-sectional time series data to test the prediction...

This paper investigates whether the forecasting performance of Bayesian autoregressive and vector autoregressive models can be improved by incorporating prior beliefs on the steady state of the time series in the system. Traditional methodology is compared to the new framework-in which a...

We use Bayesian estimation techniques to assess whether money growth Granger-causes inflation in the USA. We investigate the issue of Granger-causality out-of-sample and find that including money growth in simple VAR models of inflation does systematically improve out-of-sample forecasting...

In this article, we evaluate forecasting models for Swedish GDP growth which make use of data from Sweden's most important business survey, the <italic>Economic Tendency Survey</italic>. Employing nine years of quarterly real-time data, we conduct an out-of-sample forecast exercise. Results indicate that the...

In this article, we evaluate two types of Swedish policy interest-rate expectations: survey expectations and expectations inferred from market pricing. The data are drawn from the most prominent survey of financial-market economists and from Swedish financial markets, and they are carefully...

In this article, a Bayesian VAR model is used to study the effects of euro area shocks on GDP growth in the small open economy of Sweden. A novel feature is that the new policy uncertainty index of Baker <italic>et al.</italic> (2013) is introduced in the model. The model behaves well in terms of reasonable...

Calibrations of models related to life-cycle behavior of consumption and saving often invoke the important assumption of a unit root in individuals׳ labor-income process. We for the first time test this assumption using methods for univariate time series. Based on longitudinal register data...

The Bayesian VAR model provides a convenient tool for generating predictive densities and making probability statements regarding the future development of economic variables. This paper investigates the usefulness of standard macroeconomic Bayesian VAR models to estimate the probability of a US...

type="main" <p>In recent years, the central banks of Norway and Sweden have published their endogenous policy interest-rate forecasts. In this paper, we evaluate those forecasts alongside policy-rate expectations inferred from market pricing. We find that for both economies, there are only small...</p>