Optimal control theory can be combined with the probability structure of a vector autoregression to investigate the tradeoffs available to policy-makers. Such an approach obtains results based on a minimal set of assumptions about the economy and the structure of policy actions. This paper takes...

In this article, the authors measure and interpret the common 'factors' that describe money market returns. Results are presented for both three- and four-factor models. The authors find that the three-factor model explains, on average, 86 percent of the total variation in most money market...

This paper reexamines both monthly and quarterly U.S. postwar data to investigate if the observed comovements between money, real interestrates, prices and output are compatible with the money-real interest-output link suggested by existing monetary theories of output, which include both...

Using optimal control theory and a vector autoregressive representation of the relationship between money and interest rates, one can derive a feedback control procedure which defines the best possible tradeoff between interest rate volatility and money supply fluctuations and which could be...

This paper develops a forecasting procedure based on a Bayesian method for estimating vector autoregressions. The procedure is applied to ten macroeconomic variables and is shown to improve out-of-sample forecasts relative to univariate equations. Although cross-variables responses are damped by...