We use realized volatility to study the influence of Japanese central bank interventions on the yen-to-dollar exchange rate. A system of equations for returns, logarithmic realized volatility, and interventions provides a comprehensive view on the problem without endogeneity bias, unlike earlier...

There is considerable evidence that GARCH models do not forecast financial volatility well out of sample when evaluated by the R2 from the Mincer and Zarnowitz (1969) regression. Andersen and Bollerslev (1998) argued that although the R2s tend to be small, they are consistent with the population...

Christoffersen and Diebold (2000) have introduced a runs test for forecastable volatility in aggregated returns. In this note, we compare the size and power of their runs test and the more conventional LM test for GARCH by Monte Carlo simulation. When the true daily process is GARCH, EGARCH, or...

We propose a multivariate test for forecast rationality under asymmetric loss functions and test jointly the rationality of inflation–output forecasts of the MMS survey for the US. Our results indicate that even though the rationality of the forecasts individually may be rejected under two...